01 · The typical album
A spike on release day, half gone within a week
Take every album's curve and the median of them day by day: it peaks on day at the usual level, half of that rise is gone after , and it is back to by day 28 and by day 55. About of an album's eight-week extra attention arrives in its first seven days.
Why here and in the headline? The headline is the median of each album's own highest day; albums peak on different days, so the day-by-day median curve is flatter. Usual level = median daily views on days −35 to −8. The band on the stage is the middle half of all albums.
02 · Compared with an ordinary week
An album week looks nothing like a random Friday
I took the same artists on ordinary Fridays with no album within 90 days and measured them the same way. Their median peak is ; only of them reach the median album's . Albums: middle half .
Highest day in the first two weeks, × usual level
Blue: albums. Grey: ordinary Fridays. Log scale. Fridays are not empty: news, tours and awards also move attention; their 90th percentile is , and of albums are above it.
03 · Size and jump
Bigger artists get bigger jumps, not smaller ones
I expected well-known artists to have less room to grow. The data say the opposite: the rank correlation between an artist's usual daily views and the album's peak is . The total extra attention over eight weeks, in multiples of the usual level, is unrelated to size ().
Both axes log. Click a dot to see that album on the stage.
04 · Can it be predicted?
An artist's past albums do not predict the next one
Each album's eight-week extra attention was predicted using only albums released before it ( forecasts). The plain median of all earlier albums was off by a factor of . Using the artist's own previous album, or their median so far, was worse: and .
Error = mean absolute difference in log10, shown as a factor: 2× means the guess is typically half or double the actual value.
05 · Eleven years at a glance
Most big months are albums; some are not
Monthly views of each artist's article, compared with that artist's own median month. Ticks mark the albums analysed. Deaths, tours and award shows make the other bright cells.
Colour: views in the month ÷ the artist's median month; white = at or below the median, darkest = 20× or more. Grey = the article did not exist yet. Ticks: albums analysed; click one to open it.